Shipping Is Off Track for 2030 Emissions Goals: What the New UCL Study Reveals
The global shipping industry is unlikely to hit its 2030 alternative fuel targets. That is the central finding of the fifth edition of Climate action in shipping: Progress towards shipping's 2030 breakthrough, published by the UCL Energy Institute with the Getting to Zero Coalition. The main culprit is the regulatory limbo around the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF). The report also shows real progress in fuel supply and vessel technology, so the picture is more mixed than "failure."
What Are Shipping's 2030 Targets?
The 2023 IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy set the goal that scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) should make up 5-10% of the international shipping fuel mix by 2030. The long-term goal is net-zero emissions by around 2050, and the 2030 target was designed as a stepping stone to speed up early progress.
In practical terms, the report says this equals roughly:
600 to 1,200 large ships (15,000 TEU or equivalent) running on SZEF by 2030
A milestone of about 100 such ships in 2025, which was not met
Why the Industry Is Falling Behind
The study points to several overlapping headwinds:
Regulatory uncertainty: the failure to adopt the IMO Net-Zero Framework is the biggest single factor
Economic and political upheaval
The Strait of Hormuz crisis
Energy security concerns
Supply chain disruption
The U.S. has been among the NZF's staunchest opponents. With the framework stalled, shipowners lack the clarity to commit to costly zero-emission vessels.
Pinar Langer, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute, called the failure to adopt the NZF the "single most transition-regressive event" in the report's five-year history. She said restoring regulatory certainty is one of the most important next steps. It would give owners the confidence to order ships, lenders the incentive to finance them, and charterers the motivation to pay for low-carbon shipping.
The Good News: Record Progress in Methanol-Capable Ships
The report tracks five levers of change: technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society. On technology and supply, 2025 was a record year.
Metric | Before | 2025 | Change* |
Methanol-capable in-service tonnage | 2.3 million GT | 7.7 million GT | +5.4 million GT (about 3.3x) |
SZEF-capable share of active fleet | 0.41% | 0.77% | +0.36 points (about +88%) |
Ports offering methanol bunkering | 19 | 29 | +10 ports (about +53%) |
Change figures are calculated from the report's numbers.
Key details:
The long-awaited wave of methanol-capable container ship deliveries arrived in 2025.
It was the largest single-year capability gain on record.
It came from 56 newbuilds totaling 5.4 million GT, an average of roughly 96,000 GT per vessel (calculated).
Ammonia Reaches Key Milestones
Ammonia is emerging as a serious second pathway:
Sea trials of the first large ammonia-fueled vessels with two-stroke engines were completed successfully.
Smaller ammonia-fueled supply vessels and tugboats with four-stroke engines have been built.
The industry recorded its first ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering operation.
The Warning Sign: Orders Are Slipping
Deliveries reflect decisions made years ago, and the order book shows current confidence:
SZEF-capable orders fell from 9.5% to 5.7% of total GT ordered
That is a drop of about 40% in relative terms (calculated)
Fewer orders today mean fewer zero-emission ships on the water in the late 2020s, exactly when the 2030 target needs to be met.
Finance: Green Shipping Investment Has Plateaued
Financing is the third major pressure point:
About $3 billion was issued in 2025 through green loans, green bonds, sustainability-linked loans and transition instruments
That is down from $3.4 billion in 2024, roughly 12% lower (calculated)
Since shipping is capital-intensive, a plateau in sustainable debt makes it harder to fund new fuel-capable vessels and fuel infrastructure.
What Needs to Happen Next
The report's message is that technology is advancing but policy is holding it back. Priorities include:
Resolving the IMO NZF impasse to provide a clear, long-term price signal
Boosting newbuild orders for SZEF-capable ships
Scaling green fuel supply and bunkering ports beyond the current 29 methanol locations
Reviving sustainable finance to close the gap between $3 billion and what the transition needs
Encouraging charterers and cargo owners to pay a premium for low-carbon shipping
Key Takeaways
Shipping is highly unlikely to meet the 2030 target of 5-10% zero-emission fuel use
The 2025 milestone of about 100 large SZEF ships was missed
Methanol-capable tonnage rose from 2.3 to 7.7 million GT
The SZEF-capable fleet share nearly doubled to 0.77%
Orders fell from 9.5% to 5.7% of total GT
Green finance slipped from $3.4 billion to $3 billion
The failure to adopt the NZF is the biggest roadblock
FAQ
What is the IMO Net-Zero Framework?
It is a proposed global regulatory framework from the International Maritime Organization to help shipping reach net-zero emissions by around 2050. It has not been adopted, and this uncertainty is the central issue in the UCL report.
What are scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF)?
They are alternative fuels, such as green methanol and ammonia, that can be produced at scale with near-zero lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.
How many ports offer methanol bunkering?
The report counts 29, up from 19 a year earlier.
Will shipping meet its 2030 emissions targets?
According to the UCL Energy Institute study, it is highly unlikely without rapid policy clarity, more orders and stronger financing.
Who published the study?
The UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition. It is the fifth edition of the annual report.
